New Delhi: India and Bangladesh have formally begun discussions on the future of the Ganges Water Treaty, a key bilateral agreement that governs the sharing of river water between the two countries. The negotiations have gained urgency as the treaty, signed in 1996 for a 30-year period, is set to expire in 2026.
Why 2026 Is a Critical Year
The Ganges Water Treaty was designed as a long-term framework, but with its expiration approaching, Bangladesh has expressed growing concern over whether the agreement will be renewed and under what conditions. Water security has emerged as a strategic issue across South Asia, particularly as population growth, climate change, and uneven monsoon patterns place increasing pressure on river systems.
Indian policymakers have indicated that future water-sharing arrangements must factor in India’s own population needs and long-term sustainability, a position that reflects changing regional realities.
Early Negotiations Underway
At Bangladesh’s request, talks on the treaty began at the start of the year. External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar has recently held discussions with Bangladeshi counterparts, signaling that both sides are preparing for complex and potentially difficult negotiations.
While diplomatic engagement continues, experts note that uncertainty around water-sharing could have serious implications for Bangladesh, which relies heavily on river systems flowing from India.
How the Ganges Water Treaty Works
Known as the Ganga in India and the Padma in Bangladesh, the river is a lifeline for millions across the region. The treaty’s water-sharing mechanism is centered on the Farakka Barrage in West Bengal, where river flow is measured to determine allocations.
Water distribution is assessed annually during the dry season (January 1 to May 31), when river levels are at their lowest. The treaty uses a variable formula based on water availability:
- If flow at Farakka is below 70,000 cusecs, India receives 40,000 cusecs, and the remainder goes to Bangladesh.
- If flow is between 70,000 and 75,000 cusecs, water is shared equally.
- An emergency mechanism is included to address exceptionally low flows, requiring consultations between both countries.
India has also provided Bangladesh with assurances to maintain minimum water flows, even during adverse conditions.
Bangladesh’s Dependence on River Water
Bangladesh’s agriculture and food security depend heavily on river systems such as the Padma (Ganges), Brahmaputra, and rivers flowing from Meghalaya. Any significant disruption to these water sources could have severe humanitarian and economic consequences.
Over the past three decades, access to Ganges water has supported agricultural expansion and population growth in Bangladesh, underscoring the treaty’s importance to the country’s stability.
India’s Broader Water Treaty Framework
India is one of the few countries in the region to have entered into multiple river-sharing agreements. In addition to the Ganges Water Treaty with Bangladesh, India has agreements with Nepal on the Mahakali, Kosi, and Gandak rivers. The Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan also remains a key, though increasingly debated, framework.
While treaties with Nepal are not currently under review, analysts note that agreements with Pakistan and Bangladesh are likely to face closer scrutiny as water becomes a strategic resource in the subcontinent.
Strategic and Political Context
Recent political rhetoric in Bangladesh, including statements related to India’s northeastern states and the Siliguri Corridor, has added a strategic dimension to the water talks. Indian analysts argue that such developments further complicate negotiations and reinforce the need for a clear, interest-based approach.
The Road Ahead
With 2026 approaching, both India and Bangladesh face the challenge of balancing cooperation with national priorities. Any new or renewed agreement will need to address water scarcity, climate variability, and demographic pressures, while maintaining regional stability.
The outcome of these negotiations is expected to shape India-Bangladesh relations for decades and redefine how water diplomacy is conducted in South Asia.